Monday, November 16, 2015

2016 GOP Primary Schedule and My 2 Cents




I Stand With Rand and will vote for him in the primary. That's said, he doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. Like his awesome father, Rand will not win the theocon-neocon vote and he doesn't appeal to statist Rockefeller Republicans.  The liberty wing of the Republican Party remains weak, very weak.

I believe that Iowa is pretty much irrelevant. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and Sanitorium won it in 2012. Cruz will probably win Iowa in 2016 because of the strong religious right advantage, followed by Trump (it could be close). I also predict that Rand will have a respectable finish in IA - Ron got 21% in 2012.

After Iowa it's on the NH where Trump is polling strong.  New Hampshire is not a religious right friendly state so the advantage goes to Trump.  RCP averages (here) have Trump polling at 24.3 in NH followed by Carson (13%), Rubio (11.3), Cruz (9.0), Kasich (8.7), Bush (7.3), Christie (7.0), Fiorina (5.0), Paul (3.7).

Trump should clean up in New Hampshire and then it's on to Bible Belt South Carolina for the real Trumpster test because the real primary starts in SC. If Trump can win hardcore Bible belt SC and clean up on Super Tuesday in Bible Belt states like Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas he will most probably be the nominee because a primary is a momentum game. Many believe that the nomination process is more or less over on Super Tuesday.

The Republican primary schedule:

2/1
Iowa

2/9
New Hampshire

2/20
South Carolina

2/23
Nevada

Super Tuesday 3/1

Alabama
Alaska (GOP)
Arkansas
Colorado caucuses
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota caucuses
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

3/5
Kansas caucus
Kentucky (GOP caucus)
Louisiana

3/8
Hawaii caucus (GOP)
Idaho (GOP)
Mississippi
Michigan

3/13
Puerto Rico

3/15
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio

3/22
Arizona
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Utah

4/5
Wisconsin

4/19
New York

4/26
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

5/3
Indiana

5/10
Nebraska
West Virginia

5/17
Oregon

6/7
California
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota

6/14
District of Columbia

States with no firm dates: North Dakota, Maine, Wyoming

Source: US Presidential Election News

Spoiler Alert: The online gambling sites have been dead on accurate in the past and Pivit is considered one of the best.  Right now the gamblers are predicting that Rubio will be the Republican nominee:

Rubio: 44% probability of winning
Trump 17%
Cruz 15%
Bush 9%
Carson 5%

The online gambling results are very fluid and subject to rapid change.  A Rubio primary victory would constitute yet another HUGE victory for the establishment, neocons, defense contractors, NSA, open border advocates, TPP supporters, banksters, crony capitalists and just about everything that has ruined America, destroyed the middle class and made America a debt ridden, bankrupt empire.

Are Republican voters stupid enough to nominate Rubio?  Yeah.  They nominated 2 Bushes, McCain and Mittens.

What will happen?  I really don't know but right now it's looking like Trump has the advantage in the polls and Rubio has the advantage with the gamblers.



1 comment:

  1. Trump can still win, he will hit rubio and bush hard.

    ReplyDelete

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