Saturday, December 3, 2016

The Libertarian Vote Failed to Elect Clinton, as Intended, but Cost Trump 6 States and 38 Electoral Votes



Let's be clear; those who voted for Gary Johnson and Bill Weld knew they stood no chance of winning and their goal was to siphon off Trump votes to facilitate a Clinton victory. Maybe it's even understandable on some level.  After all, the Johnson-Weld duo endorsed forced vaccinations, the TPP, carbon taxes and even gun control.  The Libertartian Party has a lot more in common with the statist Dems and neocons than it does it does with Trump and his mission to foster a more peaceful and less interventionist foreign policy,  Furthermore, Trump campaigned heavily on restoring US manufacturing because the offshoring and outsourcing of domestic manufacturing has devastated America's poor and middle classes.

Anyway, the LP hurt Trump somewhat but not nearly enough to cost him the election despite coming in with 3.2% of the vote (4,042, 291 votes, source here).   Trump easily won the states that Romney won in 2012 but what delivered him victory was the swing states - they are typically the general election kingmakers.  Also, blue states that typically aren't in play came into play for Trump's decisive victory.

Trump managed to peel off some fickle purplish states as well as some reliable blue states, all states that Obama won in 2012 with the exception of NC,  The Democrat loss of FL (29 EV), OH (18 EV), IA (6 EV),  PA (20 EV), MI (16 EV) and WI (10 EV) blasted a staggering 99 electoral votes into the Trump column.  The loss of reliable blue PA, WI and MI was especially painful for the Dems because the Dems could afford to lose big swing states like FL and OH but they couldn't afford to lose PA, MI and WI.

Hence, the Clinton Campaign and Jill Stein are demanding recounts in  PA, MI and WI because if successful it will swing victory to Clinton.

Trump has 306 EV to Clinton's 232. A flip of 46 EV in PA, MI and WI subtracts 46 electoral votes from Trump's column and puts them in Clinton's column.  Clinton wins.278-260.

Moving along, let's focus on the effect of the Libertarian vote. In what states did the Libertarian vote cost Trump victory:

NM - 5 EV
Trump:    40.0
Clinton    40.3
Johnson     9.3

CO - 9 EV
Trump     43.3
Clinton    48.2
Johnson     5.2

ME - 4 EV
Trump     45.1
Clinton    47.8
Johnson     5.1

NH - 4 EV
Trump    46.5
Clinton   46.8
Johnson    4.1

MN - 10 EV
Trump    44.9
Clinton   46.4
Johnson    3.8

NV - 6 EV
Trump    45.5
Clinton   47.9
Johnson    3.3

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

The Libertarian vote delivered 6 states and 38 electoral votes to Clinton.  Without the Libertarians, Clinton would have had a paltry 194 EV's to Trump's 344.

Also, the Libertarian vote is responsible for the razor thin Trump victory margins in WI, MI, PA, FL and also cost Trump breaking 50% in these states.

WI - 10 EV
Trump   47.5
Clinton  47.3
Johnson  3.6

MI - 16 EV
Trump   47.5
Clinton  47.3
Johnson   3.6

PA - 20 EV
Trump    48.4
Clinton   47.3
Johnson    2.4

FL - 29 EV
Trump    48.6
Clinton   47.4
Johnson    2.2

Although it's not likely that Clinton will reverse the results in PA, MI and WI (she needs all 3), what is clear is that the LP played a key role in making POTUS2016 more difficult and challenging for the Republicans. Still, it appears that the LP has failed to elect Clinton and that's a damn good thing for America and the entire world.

The Libertarians sought to play the role of spoiler in POTUS 2016, which it came close to accomplishing, despite not winning one single state.  However, America seems to be trending Republican-Libertarian.  Trump won 30 states and would have won 36 if he got the Libertarian vote. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party that only won 6 states because of the Libertarian vote.

The Democrats also got clobbered in the Senate which it expected to flip to Democrat control with the anticipated huge Clinton victory that never materialized.  The Republicans kept both houses of Congress, won a least 3 more governorships and cleaned up in state legislatures.

Finally, the mood of American voters is that government is failing them so they once again voted for hope and change.













2 comments:

  1. Judy, I have to disagree vehemently with "... those who voted for Gary Johnson and Bill Weld knew they stood no chance of winning and their goal was to siphon off Trump votes to facilitate a Clinton victory." You can ONLY write this weeks after the election after careful analysis of the numbers. Many of us who voted for the disappointing Libertarian ticket did so because as flawed as it was this cycle, we reasoned it still echoed our views better than either of the major party candidates. In my own case, I was horrified that Senator Clinton would win. She is an unrepentant war-monger and destroyer of life. I, and perhaps millions of others who voted for Johnson/Weld had NO intention to put Hillary back in the White House (when a more proper place for her would be prison).

    You wrote, "Still, it appears that the LP has failed to elect Clinton and that's a damn good thing for America and the entire world." 1. The LP was seeking ONLY to elect their own candidates--and certainly not Ms. Clinton. Agreed that it is damn good for the world she lost!


    You wrote, "The Libertarians sought to play the role of spoiler in POTUS 2016, which it came close to accomplishing, despite not winning one single state."


    I have circulated among Libertarians for years. I have never met a Libertarian who thought of himself/herself as a "spoiler." The Repulican and Democrat parties run such unacceptable war-mongering, nation-bankrupting, lying candidates--they are simply NOT worthy of a vote. Hence--the Libertarian Party!

    I have heard for years, "A vote for the Libertarians is a vote for the Democrats." Or, "...for the Republicans."

    WAKE UP! A vote for the Libertarians is a vote for greater freedom, autonomy, prosperity, and smaller government. A vote for either Reps or Dems is habitually the opposite.

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