Sunday, March 6, 2016

My Two Cents on 3/5 Super Saturday - a bad night for Trump and a Great Night for the Establishment and Religious Right But it's Far From Over





While Trump won Louisiana and Kentucky as Cruz won Kansas and Maine, it was Cruz who cleaned up on delegates on the 3/5 Super Saturday.  Cruz won 64 delegates, Trump 49, Rubio 13 and Kashich 9.   Trump leads the total delegate count with 382, followed by Cruz with 300; Rubio has 128, Kasich 35 and Carson 8, here.  

A recap of Super Saturday States from Politico, here:

Kansas: Cruz thumps Trump - 48% and wins 24 delegates, Trump 23% with 9 delegates, Rubio 17% with 6 delegates and Kasich 11% with 1 delegate.

Kentucky: Trump narrowly squeaks by 36-32, Trump, 36% with 17 delegates, Cruz 32% with 15 delegates, Rubio 16% with 7 delegates and Kasich 14% with 7 delegates.

Louisiana: Trump squeaks by 41-38.  Trump 41% with 15 delegates, Cruz 38% with 14 delegates and zero delegates for Rubio and Kasich.

Maine: Cruz thumps Trump 46-33. Cruz 46% with 12 delegates, Trump 33% with 9 delegates, Kasich 12% with 2 delegates and zero delegates for Rubio.

It was an ugly night for Trump as his 2 victories were narrow but the victories of Cruz were blowouts.

With regard to Trump's 382 total delegates thus far, it should be noted that the combined delegates of Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Carson total 471.  Yes it's a trend and it's also entirely possible and highly probable that the RNC-GOP machine are indeed delighted that Trump can be denied the nomination at the RNC Convention.

For the record, I'm personally supporting Trump for reasons outlined in The Top Ten Reasons To Vote For Trump.

That said, certain trends and patterns are emerging.  Specifically, Trump seems to perform poorly in caucus states and the mid west. Ironically, Cruz viewed the south as his solid Evangelical firewall but Trump demolished it.  With Trump cleaning up big in the south from the South Carolina primary (winner take all where Trump bagged all 50 delegates) and Super Tuesday, it appears that the momentum is shifting away from Trump and toward Cruz.

Both Cruz and Trump are disdained by the establishment RNC-GOP but for different reasons. Trump is disdained by the Republican elites because he's an independent thinker, he's not likely to take orders, he's bashed Republican foreign policy and he vigorously oppose the nasty corporatist trade agreements that will continue to decimate US manufacturing and high paying middle class jobs. Cruz is disdained because as a fundamentalist Domionist religious right whackjob, he's unelectable in a general election.  On the other hand, bat shit crazy as Cruz is, he's a solid neocon that has the support of Wall Street and the banksters.

The top 2 candidates of the RNC-GOP elites were Jeb Bush (now out of the race) and the backup Rubio who is floundering badly in the primaries.  If Rubio can't change the momentum by winning his home state of Florida 3/15 and start racking up primary victories, he's toast.  It's appearing that Rubio is already toast.

So what will the RNC-GOP elites do?  Well, they are rather delighted because they now see a real clear path to general election victory with a bankster loving, warmongering Democrat named Hillary Clinton - a favorite of Wall Street, defense contractors and the military industrial complex.  Many Republicans have publicly stated that they would support Clinton over Trump.

If Cruz can win the Republican nomination, the RNC-GOP elites won't have to worry about the nasty business of endorsing a psychopathic Democrat over a Republican; all they have to do is wait for Clinton to demolish Cruz in the general election.

However, it's far from over for Trump.  While I predict that Trump momentum will continue to decline for a while, I also believe that Trump momentum holds the potential to accelerate once the primary moves out of the mid west and into late primary states like Pennsylvania, New York and California where the Dominionist religious right tends to perform poorly.  Also, except for Nevada which Trump won big with 46%, the west hasn't voted and will become a primary wild card.

Meanwhile, everyone is waiting with baited breath for March 15 when Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio vote.  Florida and Ohio are viewed as the most significant Republican primary states because they are the home states of Florida Senator Rubio and  Gov. Kasich, the sitting governor of Ohio, in addition to being winner take all states.  If anything, March 15 will indicate how long and drawn out the Republican primary season will be.  If Rubio can't win Florida, he will have to drop out and it's clear that he really doesn't even have a path to victory regardless of what happens in Florida.

Meanwhile, all we can do is wait as the Domionist religious right and RNC-GOP elites temporarily celebrate their victories as they plot their strategies to defeat Trump - the only real game on the GOP agenda because Cruz can be dispatched in the general election.  Trump can't.

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