Tuesday, July 17, 2018

How did Hillary Clinton really lose the 2016 election? It wasn't because of the Russians.

The Dems, the Deep State, Trump haters and the media cling to the delusion that Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election delivered victory to Trump and snatched an earned victory from Hillary. Let's autopsy the election based on numerical facts. Doing the math in conjunction with understanding American voters brings the entire 2016 election into focus.

For starters, Hillary lost 6 states that Obama won TWICE and those states and their electoral votes are FL (29), PA (20), OH (18),  MI (16), WI (10) and IA (6).  That's a total of 99 Electoral Votes in an election that Trump won 306-232 (74 Electoral Votes).

Roughly, about a third of voters (up to 36-39% according to some estimates) classify themselves as Independents even if they loosely affiliate with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, the Libertarian or the Green Party. Independent voters are unpredictable, fickle and tend to shun establishment candidates and embrace change.  Precisely because Independent voters are a significant voting block, they are indeed the general election kingmakers in the critical swing states, even if swing states vary from election to election.  Everybody got the swing states wrong in 2016.

Independent voters also tend to be economic voters who care about jobs and  growth.  Obama did well with Independents in 2008 but lost support in 2012 because they soured on his economic policies.  Romney did well with Independent voters but not well enough to win.

Hillary was basically running on Obama economic policies.  However, other factors came into play.  The Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, appealed to antiwar voters and folks with strong environmental concerns.  In Wisconsin and Michigan, votes for Stein exceeded Trump's victory margins so it can be accurately stated that Stein cost Clinton Wisconsin and Michigan, here.

Overall Trump margin of victory: 27,257 votes
Jill Stein vote total: 30,980
Gary Johnson vote total: 106,442

Overall Trump margin of victory: 13,107 votes
Jill Stein vote total: 51,427
Gary Johnson vote total: 172,726

Gary Johnson voters were highly unlikely to vote for Clinton because the Libertarian Party runs on less government, less wars and less spending.  If anything, Gary Johnson voters took votes away from Trump.  Anyway, Stein voters causing Clinton to lose WI and MI had nothing whatsoever to do with Russia or Putin but were merely the ideological choices of voters who didn't like or trust Clinton on foreign policy and the environment.

OH and PA  are viewed as rust belt states and both have suffered greatly from the loss of manufacturing and factory jobs. Trump won them as a revolt against the Obama economy. In OH, Trump clobbered Clinton by 455,000 votes despite Stein getting 44,000 and Johnson getting 169,000 votes.  PA was tighter because blue cities like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg tend to outvote the rural population to carry the state to Democrat victories.

Overall Trump margin of victory: 71,794
Jill Stein vote total: 48,657
Gary Johnson vote total: 142,334

PA was damn close and could have gone either way.  I actually know somebody who travels extensively for his job through western and rural PA.  He said it was wallpapered with Trump signs and he saw no Clinton signs.  At the end of the day, the economic rural voters did manage to outvote Pennsylvania's big population centers with an awesome voter turnout.

Again, the PA and OH voters were economic, working class voters - the folks who suffered the most under 8 years of Obama and Democrat economic rule.  They were hungry for change.  These economic voters were never impacted by Russia or Putin.  In fact, they could care less what Russia thinks of them or their voting habits.

FL was also close despite having a decent economy unlike rustbelt OH and PA.  FL however is a classic purple state that can go either way - its a GOTV game.  Big blue liberal cities like Miami are balanced the deeply red panhandle. During the Bush-Gore fiasco, the dastardly media called the election for Gore based on FL results despite the fact that folks in the panhandle who are in a different time zone had not finished voting.  When the election was deliberately called for Gore to swing the election, many folks in the panhandle didn't bother to vote.  They NEVER made that mistake again.

Florida also has vibrant and substantial 3rd party movements that do impact general elections and help to make them 'squeakers'.

Overall Trump margin of victory: 119,489
Jill Stein vote total: 64,060
Gary Johnson vote total: 206,189

Morever, it's true that while 3rd parties do not win elections, they are indeed the general election kingmakers in tight races in tight states.

To believe that Putin or Russia somehow function as Russian Election Bots that permeate the brains of American voters is insane.

Clinton lost for 2 big reasons:  1. her overt warmongering interventionist foreign policy cost her the antiwar vote and those voters were furious with the mass genocide that resulted from Obama-Clinton interventions in Syria and Libya (a big reason why Stein did well enough in MI and WI to keep Clinton from winning) and 2. the economy.  The economy is always the biggie and it was Bill Clinton who coined the phrase 'it's the economy stupid', something his wife never understood.

Finally, American voters are NOT under the influence of Russia or Putin DESPITE the creepy media and the Democrats REFUSING to believe that the American people rejected Clinton for reasons that are incredibly obvious to anybody who isn't deranged or delusional or a total moron.

Clinton was a terrible candidate who failed connect with the concerns of the voters, many of whom were seriously listening to Trump who had an outstanding talent for tapping into voter concerns, especially working class voter concerns.  When Clinton called Trump supporters deplorables, racists, sexists, homophobes, zenophobes and Islamophobes, that insult helped to seal her fate among undecided voters.  Being distant from voter concerns, a Mitt Romney affliction, is one thing but flatout humiliating and degrading voters you are trying to romance was profoundly stupid and arrogant.  Clinton thought she was being funny and cute in an election she thought she had already bagged but fate has a funny way of upsetting the best laid plans.

Clinton sunk herself and all without the help of Russia or Putin.

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